Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

[AAFO_WSagar]

Objectively...!

Given the fact that we, as a species, are going to be thrown various diseases throughout our lifespan, when something like the outbreak of a variant of a known virus as we now deal with hits us, should we figure out a way to deal with it that does not shut down the very lifestyle we are afraid of losing?

[CubersWrist]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

My opinion is yes.

Objectively the data to make policy decisions has been complete garbage.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

But politicians need to "do something" to at least look like they are helping. So given the crappy data and the even crappier analysis of that data, they close everything down.
Now I can say the analysis was crappy because I can do math. The original 3% number was based on deaths divided by confirmed cases. The WHO and CDC then compare that number to the common flu and say "This is awful because the flu is only .1%". But when the WHO and CDC calculate that .1% for the flu, they are including a carefully estimated fudge factor which is supposed to account for the cases that no one knows about. This is me every year, because I get the flu, I don't tell the doctor, I just stay home for a couple days, sleep it off, and go back to work. This has happened with Corona by some unknown amount. That means the number of cases is larger than the number of "confirmed cases" which means the fatality rate is not 3%.

Now there is a lot of historical data to estimate the fudge factor for the flu. As to what the fudge factor should be for Corona, that estimate is getting better as time goes by and has already resulted in drastic reductions in WHO death toll estimates. This is important because the original estimates are what was used to justify shutting down the economy.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/british-government-lowered-its-estimate-of-severity-of-coronavirus-last-week

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-overreacting-to-coronavirus

So my actual answer is, I don't know. The data is still crap, and the analysis of said data has been even worse. As more information and cooler heads are prevailing it looks more and more encouraging that we are looking at a pandemic orders of magnitude better than we were initially told.

[planecrazy2]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

Are the steps being taken too extreme, or appropriate? Consider all the bad data, and every other known factor and ask yourself, is a conservative death rate of even 1% of our citizens, friends, family worth the potential disruption of our lives and economy? Is being told to stay home and take care of our family and elders that hard a sacrifice? Unfortunately, we won’t know if the steps taken are enough, or too much, until it’s over. This is new and unprecedented territory in many ways.

1% dead is 327,200 American people.

By comparison, 405,000 Americans died in WWII. Look at what our nation sacrificed to win that battle. This crowd should not have to be reminded.

On average, the flu kills around 35,000 Americans each year. So, this runaway Norovirus is at least 10X more fatal than the average flu virus.

I think the better question is; where is/was the national plan for this scenario?

This is not the first exotic virus to threaten the world. Scientists knew a virus was going to arise from Asian live animal markets. Because MIRS and SARS were found to have originated in Asian live animal markets.
So where was America’s plan to fight this enemy? America spends a trillion bucks a year on its military complex. We have thousands of plans and the hardware to combat potential foes everywhere on the planet.

So where is/was the strategic plan to combat this enemy?

Let us turn to our leadership for the answer. The President and Congress. Two of the most dysfunctional entities that ever existed. With the $64,000 question being can they grasp the potential effect of a runaway Covid-19 Norovirus on the population?

The answer is, no. So, all their denials, finger pointing, and handwringing have replaced what should have been the implementation of our nations plan for a runaway Norovirus that scientists knew was coming.

What we are experiencing now is a clear lack of strong leadership that has resulted in a “every man for themselves” policy. When the President deferred to the leadership of the individual states to “take care of their own people as necessary”, he abdicated his leadership role. Instead of a coordinated, scientific, rational and reasonable attack led from the top down, according to a plan that should have been available to use, we now have a patchwork of rules, recommendations, guidelines, suggestions, mandates and policies created by every City, County, Parish, State and the Feds. S.A.F.U.

There is a critical takeaway from this experience we all need to understand.

Our society is fragile. If this threat can break our society, destroy our economy, we all should now realize how close to the edge of the volcano we have been dancing. When we see the other side of this, after we have buried the dead. Turn around and look at the cracks this will leave in the foundation of our lives, and fix them.

Best of luck to you all. Try and stay healthy through this latest burden our generation now carries. See you on the other side.

[Guest]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

Are the steps being taken too extreme, or appropriate? Consider all the bad data, and every other known factor and ask yourself, is a conservative death rate of even 1% of our citizens, friends, family worth the potential disruption of our lives and economy? Is being told to stay home and take care of our family and elders that hard a sacrifice? Unfortunately, we wonÂ’t know if the steps taken are enough, or too much, until itÂ’s over. This is new and unprecedented territory in many ways.

1% dead is 327,200 American people.

By comparison, 405,000 Americans died in WWII. Look at what our nation sacrificed to win that battle. This crowd should not have to be reminded.

On average, the flu kills around 35,000 Americans each year. So, this runaway Norovirus is at least 10X more fatal than the average flu virus.

You assumption of every single American being infected and that is is 10x more fatal than Wuhan virus is simply not true. Fact is the CDC estimates show the 2019 influenza season will infect, on average, 46MM US citizens and the number of deaths will be approx. 43K. That's a "fatal" percentage of just under 10%. Current "fatal" rate for Wuhan virus in the US hovering around 1.5%. Not sure how came up with a fatality rate of ten times the influenza rate. In fact, it's exponentially less than the influenza rate...by almost a factor of 10.

I'm with ya' regarding leadership, both executive and congressional. I'd expect more from both. That said, if the president hadn't shut down flights from ceratin regions of China when he did (31Jan) for foreign nationals, this could be much worse. And even then he was labeled a racist and xenophobe. While at the same time, the mayor of NYC and his public health director were encouaging people to treat this like the flu and go on with their daily routines. They were spouting the same message as late as 11Mar. Leadership...not so much.

As far as the "every man for himself" approach, that's a simplistic defintion. Fact is, every state, every county, every city is impacted differently and to varying degrees. What is necessary in NYC is not indicated in Danebrog, NE. And coming out the other side of this pandemic will also look differnent in those very same locales. This is not a one size fits all. Over and over the Fed's (not just POTUS) have indicated they're attacking this on several fronts but the driving force is to ensure local and state health agencies are free to make those decisions indicated by their particular situation.

Were the Fed's prepared for this? No. Are they recovering better than virtually every other government with similar infection rates, yes. A testiment to both the health system and free markets. And yes...to some degree...leadership from the Fed's.

[wadeh]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

Fact is the CDC estimates show the 2019 influenza season will infect, on average, 46MM US citizens and the number of deaths will be approx. 43K. That's a "fatal" percentage of just under 10%.

You might want to check your math here

[Guest]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

You might want to check your math here

Yep, my bad. Should have double-checked. Thanks for the catch! Stupid is as stupid does!

[Lon Moer]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

Yes.
I am in the 'vulnerable' group - spent a month in the hospital in 2019 with the RSV virus, followed by a month at home on oxygen - and I just can't believe the whole worldwide panic over the Wuhan flu "Paranoia Virus" .

If the world has become this incapacitated by a flu with an undeveloped a vaccine, I can only imagine what the world will be like after a true zombie apocalypse level of affliction.

[Desertdawg]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

I for one do not want to catch it. What I have seen from some healthy people that have got it is, your gasping for air!

Thats the reason why there is shortage of ventilators.

For me it would be like being in a submarine that sunk to the bottom with a limited air supply.

For 5 days your air supply slowly disappears, then you die on your last breath.

No thanks, I'll take 14 days of no social contact.

We are one tuff ass country, we will survive!

[Reever]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

I for one am more afraid of the panic than the virus. Follow the guidelines and use some good sense. But, someone please explain the toilet paper hording!

[Lockheed Bob]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

I saw a photo of a persons garage & there was at least 2000 rolls of TP & a guy figured it out that the toilet would have to be used 176 times a day for a year to use it all up. What a crappy life.

[Guest]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

I for one am more afraid of the panic than the virus. Follow the guidelines and use some good sense. But, someone please explain the toilet paper hording!

My guess is that if you're diagnosed with Wuhan virus, it'll scare the $#it out of you?

[Reever]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

My guess is that if you're diagnosed with Wuhan virus, it'll scare the $#it out of you?

Well, I've had bronchial pneumonia three times in my life so I know what time on a ventilator is like.

[Guest]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

Well, I've had bronchial pneumonia three times in my life so I know what time on a ventilator is like.

Sorry to hear that, Reever. You stay safe!

[Lon Moer]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

I for one am more afraid of the panic than the virus. Follow the guidelines and use some good sense. But, someone please explain the toilet paper hording!

There have been some PSA's on the local radio stations saying "you don't have to hoard items, the grocery stores restock their items every night".

[Desertdawg]

Re: Corona Virus: Are we overreacting?

There have been some PSA's on the local radio stations saying "you don't have to hoard items, the grocery stores restock their items every night".

This was Costco here in Reno last Tuesday morning at 7:45am, Tuesday and Thursday 8-9 am are special senior hours.

What a joke, not many looked close to being a "senior". I just had to laugh, I drove over to Smart and Final and walked right in, then to Raleys and in & out in 15 minutes.

Things I learned from my parents was to have a pantry and buy on sale and have enough in case there are hard times, these people apparently are the ones that don't have a clue. Don't buy TP 4 rolls at a time LOL

The line went all the way to the entrance then curled back into the parking lot LOL