| WASHINGTON 12/03/98-- The military will
play an important role in the People's Republic of China
reaching its goals of being a great world power and the
pre-eminent one in Asia. This is the conclusion of a DoD
report submitted to Congress by Defense Secretary William
S. Cohen. The report covers the future military
capabilities and strategy of the People's Republic of
China. The ultimate goal of the most populous country on
the globe is "parity in economic, political and
military strength with the world's leading powers by the
middle of the next century," the report says. China
has no major external security threats, and the Chinese
are taking advantage of this to reorganize and modernize
their army. The People's Liberation Army will still be
the largest on Earth even after it finishes a cut of
500,000 soldiers. Officials are equipping the army with
more modern weaponry and developing a more educated
officer and enlisted corps. The report says barring a
declaration of independence by Taiwan, which China claims
as its own, the chance of an unavoidable large-scale
conflict is "almost negligible" over the next
15 years. China is, however, preparing for possible
military contingencies along its southeastern flank --
the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. China's goal,
the report says, is to field forces that can deploy
rapidly and win a future regional war along its periphery
under high-technology conditions. If a small war broke
out, Chinese strategy would be to contain the conflict
and apply sufficient force to win before outside powers
could intervene, the report says. U.S. military officials
call this doctrine "local war under high-tech
conditions." China's aim at becoming the pre-eminent
Asian power will "require the weakening of U.S.
political influence in the region," the report says,
adding China will not directly confront the United
States. China, like the United States, is seeking to
exploit the "revolution in military affairs."
The report says the Chinese military is intensely
interested in information operations and information
warfare. They are developing or seeking to buy mobile
ballistic missile launchers, land- attack cruise missiles
and advanced surface-to-air missiles. China is also
working to improve command, control, communications,
computers and intelligence, training and logistics. China
is a nuclear power and may have started a warhead
modernization program. It announced a nuclear test
moratorium in 1996. The report says China may be building
an anti-satellite capability and already may able to
track and "image" low- orbiting satellites. It
also may have acquired high-energy lasers needed for
ground-based anti-satellite systems. The Chinese have a
robust space program and may have a manned launch before
the end of the decade, the report says. "While one
of the strongest motivations for this program appears to
be political prestige, China's manned space efforts could
contribute to improved military space systems in the
2010-2020 time frame." The Chinese navy is getting
more, better and quieter submarines. The Chinese are also
developing amphibious capabilities and an airborne corps.
Internally, policies are geared to keep the Chinese
Communist Party in power. Problems are cropping up,
though. China will confront large-scale unemployment as
reform continues in state-owned enterprises. Minority and
human rights agitation will continue, and the party must
confront widespread corruption, ecological disasters and
an ever- growing population. A large part of the security
strategy hinges on China improving its already robust
economy. The Chinese will continue to promote rapid
economic growth, improve education, and maintain
political unity and stability. By Jim Garamone American
Forces Press Service
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