Da Bear

My prediction from last year about the 2001 Reno National Championship Air Races remains unchanged: this will be the fastest Air Race in the 92-year history of the "World's Fastest Motorsport." Pilot skill and aircraft capability will make a "Speed Dash" out of the heat races leading up to the Gold.

I am further predicting that this will be the "Year of the Dark Horse" in Air Racing. In other words, look for the longshot to win at Reno this September in multiple classes.

If we have the same weather this year that we had last year, I am also predicting that this will be the year the 500 mph lap is achieved -- in qualifications -- and that a new Race Record will be set in the Unlimited Class, well above the mark of 481.618 mph, set by Lyle Shelton in "Rare Bear," Race 77, in in 1991.

I believe the new record will be in the range of 485 to 491 mph, and that the record itself will fall in a heat race that occurs before Sunday's Gold. Further, we may see the new race record broken again during the Gold.

I expect the first ten places in qualifications to round out as such:

1) Skip Holm "Dago Red" Race 4

2) Ron Buccarelli (R) "Precious Metal" Race 38

3) Bill Destefani "Strega" Race 7

4) Tom Dwelle "Critical Mass" Race 10

5) Matt Jackson "Voodoo" Race 5

6) Brent Hisey "Miss America" Race 11

7) Mike Brown "September Fury" Race 232

8) Sherman Smoot "Czech Mate" Race 86

9) Bill Rheinschild "Risky Business" Race 45

10) Art Vance "Furias" Race 15

(R) = Rookie

I expect Skip Holm to go all out to win the pole position, thus the 500 mph lap will fall as a result of his efforts and those of Bill Kerchenfaut and Team. Dago Red was unofficially clocked at 496 mph on the ramp at R2K and eventually was given an average speed of 489 mph as the result of a penalty. I believe that the pole position will fall to Skip Holm and Dago Red at a speed in excess of 500 mph -- 501.365 mph will be my prediction.

I expect to see Ron Buccarelli test his engine on the course to see what speeds "Precious Metal" is capable of, but I don't expect him to challenge the 500 mph barrier. Buccarelli will want to conserve his engine for the upcoming races. However, because of the substantial amount of power available from the Rolls Royce Griffon (57A) motor, I expect to see Buccarelli qualify in the 480s.

Due to the short period of time between now and Reno, I anticipate that Bill "Tiger" Destefani will be more concerned with qualifying and breaking his new engine in, rather than challenging for the pole position. I expect him to see him qualify at third in the 470s.

Tom Dwelle will have something to prove this year with his hybrid Sea Fury and its powerful, very sound, Larry Klassen motor. Tom will want to show the Mustang boys that his Super Sea Fury intends to put on the pressure, making "attrition" not just a possibility, but a reality for some. Expect to see Tom qualify in the 460s.

Joining Tom in the 460s will be Matt Jackson and "Voodoo," which I believe will operate at a conservative speed during qualifications in order to save the engine for the Gold event on Sunday.

Brent Hisey will post the fastest speeds ever flown in the "Miss America" racer at Reno in 2001. I expect him to test his new, Gold Class engine during qualifications, with speeds in the 460 range.

The 450 Club will belong to Mike Brown, who I expect will be just as aggressive as he was during qualifications at R2K, where he made an impressive showing in a brand new racer, only to have to pull up and out in the chute prior to his first race in "September Fury," due to a seized engine.

Sherman Smoot should qualify well into the 430s in order to get "Czech Mate" into the race -- again, with another very sound, Larry Klassen motor. I also expect to see Bill Rheinschild in the 430s due to his excellent showing in last year's Gold race (3rd place), a sound racing strategy, and the exemplary Crew Chief he has in Bryan Marsh. I also expect to see Art Vance and "Furias" post speeds in the 430s, thanks to improvements made by Bill Rogers and Team during the off season.

Look for the four Mustangs to battle it out until attrition, deadline cuts, and/or "the wall" wears down their numbers.

This year's race will start as a four-plane Battle Royal for first place between veteran racer and test pilot Skip Holm in "Dago Red," Bill "Tiger" Destefani in "Strega," veteran racer Matt Jackson in "Voodoo," and rookie Ron Buccarelli in "Precious Metal."

I believe that a "wall" of speed exists due to the gearing of the Hovey-prepared Merlin engine, and thus, I anticipate that Matt Jackson will adopt the same strategy as Tom Dwelle and wait to see if the others break. Dwelle has a sound aircraft and engine, but has run into problems breaking deadlines. The battle for third place will take place between those two aircraft, the loser of that battle finishing in fourth; the deciding factors being "the wall" (in both aircraft's case) and the deadlines (in Dwelle's case). This is a coin toss, but I believe Jackson will finish third.

Six-time Reno National Champion, Bill "Tiger" Destefani, is cut from the same mold as Lyle Shelton -- he will either "win the race or blow the engine." The big unknown is his race engine. Last year, his engine didn't get him into the races -- a problem with incorrect liners. This year, the preparation of the engine will be paramount -- a matter of pride -- plus there will be speed modifications to Strega that Destefani indicated would occur after his aircraft flew home from Reno-Stead with a ferry engine earlier this year.

Skip Holm lives on a different plain than most pilots, but the three-time Reno National Champion is in the same boat as Destefani. His "old reliable" engine broke in half after he won the Gold at R2K (...and after taking off for last year's planned "500 mph" lap attempt). Thus, Dago Red will have a new race engine installed for this year, making it an "unknown" factor in the coming race.

Both Holm and Destefani have experienced racing crews behind them. I believe that one of these aircraft will suffer attrition (blown engine). I expect to see Skip Holm finish in second place at 2001: A Race Odyssey.

Which leads us to the future 2001 Reno National Champion, rookie Ron Buccarelli. If you're going to put your head in a noose making predictions like these, I say don't just put your head in the noose -- jump up and down on the trap door while you're at it!

...and believe me when I say, Mankind has yet to build a "trap door" that will hold my 350-pound frame!

Ron Buccarelli has likened his entry into the "World's Fastest Motorsport" as "The Bowery Boys Come to Air Racing!" Buccarelli, Dave Vorsas, Dave Berry, and Pat Sturgis, have been working to familiarize themselves with the exotic, Griffon-powered, Race 38 -- the aircraft formerly known as "Precious Metal," soon to be known as...you got it -- "Precious Metal." Personally, I liked the Art Vance-inspired name of the "Huevos Grande Special," but I digress...

I just spent the weekend with the crew at Reno-Stead and had the distinct pleasure of listening to the Griffon at power over the field. I watched them remove a secondary oil cooler, keep their oil temps within limits, and drop the cooling temperature of the engine by thirty degrees. This equates to more power.

Also, Buccarelli and the boys have something that I don't think any other Racing Team is going to bring with them to Reno -- a spare Race engine -- not a ferry engine, mind you, because they have one of those, too. Rather, a back-up race engine. They can put the pressure on Dago Red and Strega all day long -- and if something breaks in their engine -- they can repair it overnight and get back into the races the next day. Their ferry engine is such that they can count on it being almost a "third Race engine."

If Dago Red or Strega break...will they be able to repair their current engine to get the back in the race?

That's a rhetorical question -- we'll have to wait and see.

...but do they have a back-up Race engine? Another big unknown. I am of the belief they do not, but even if they did, I doubt their Merlin's are going to be able to summon up the sustained power that Buccarelli's Rolls Royce Griffon is currently capable of.

I see Buccarelli flying conservatively until Saturday. On Saturday, Buccarelli will take the gloves off. On Sunday itself, since he only plans to race "Precious Metal" this one year (...he has another pilot in mind for subsequent campaigns in the years that follow...), I anticipate that former Naval Aviator (GIB -- F-14 Tomcats) Buccarelli will bend the throttle forward during the Gold and become the fifth Rookie to win at Reno during his first year racing [the other four being Mira Slovak (1964), Steve Hinton (1978), Skip Holm (1981), and Neil Anderson (1983)].

A Merlin might be able to do a 500 mph lap, but the issue in winning the Unlimited Gold will be:

"Who will have sustained power over every lap of the Final Race on Sunday?"

My answer: Ron Buccarelli and the gleaming "Precious Metal."

We've now both been well and duly hung and as we dangle beneath the old oak tree with our favorite target shirts on, please feel free to throw darts, flowers, beers, or whatever pleases you at us on the "Hangar Talk" discussion board [click here]

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